China's Thousand Sails Megaconstellation Kicks Off with Dangerous Debris Field

On August 6, 2024, China marked a significant milestone in its space ambitions with the successful launch of the first batch of 18 satellites for the Thousand Sails low Earth orbit (LEO) communications megaconstellation. However, the achievement has also raised concerns, as the launch resulted in a debris field along the orbit, potentially threatening other spacecraft.

First Thousand Sails Launch

A Long March 6A rocket lifted off from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in northern China at 2:42 a.m. Eastern (0642 UTC). The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) confirmed the launch's success just over two hours later.

The rocket's upper stage deployed the 18 flat-panel Qianfan ("Thousand Sails") satellites into polar orbit, a crucial step in building Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology's (SSST) ambitious constellation.

SSST's Thousand Sails project aims to deploy a vast network of more than 14,000 LEO satellites. This megaconstellation, once fully operational, is designed to provide global internet access and bolster national data security.

The constellation also represents China's bid to challenge U.S. projects such as Starlink and secure finite orbital slots and frequencies.

Expansion Plans and Military Implications

The first stage of the Thousand Sails constellation will consist of 1,296 satellites, with 648 planned for launch by the end of 2025 to achieve regional network coverage. SSST has indicated that 108 satellites will be launched in 2024 in batches of 36 and 54.

The project is part of China's broader strategy to enhance its commercial space capabilities and has potential military applications, as noted by Chinese military officials, who cite the use of satellites in Ukraine’s defense against Russia.

Shanghai's Commercial Space Push

The Thousand Sails project is supported by Shanghai's municipal government as part of a broader commercial space initiative. Shanghai aims to develop a robust space information industry worth more than 200 billion yuan ($28.2 billion) by 2025, including advancements in integrated communications, navigation, and remote sensing technologies.

The initiative aligns with the central government's designation of commercial space as an "industry of the future."

Debris Field Raises Concerns

While the launch was successful in deploying the satellites, it also created a debris field along the orbit, raising concerns about the potential risks to other spacecraft in LEO.

Slingshot Aerospace, a space-tracking and data analytics firm, reported detecting more than 50 pieces of debris from the Long March 6A rocket's upper stage.

"Composite images from Slingshot’s LEO-focused Horus optical fences show a series of bright, unexpected objects moving along the same orbital path as the rocket body and the G60 satellites it deployed," - Slingshot Statement

The U.S. Space Force confirmed the breakup of the Long March 6A rocket stage, stating that the event likely occurred on August 7, 2024, at 1548 UTC. The tracked debris pieces are being incorporated into routine conjunction assessments to ensure spaceflight safety.

"There are currently no threats to human spaceflight. Analysis is ongoing," - US Space Force Statement

Space debris at such altitudes, where atmospheric drag is minimal, can remain in orbit for decades or longer, posing a long-term threat to other spacecraft. The debris from this launch joins the growing concerns over the accumulation of space debris in LEO, especially with the anticipated increase in satellite launches.

Megaconstellation Concerns

SSST plans to launch a further 90 satellites this year, with the overall plan to deploy more than 14,000 satellites. The frequent use of the Long March 6A rocket raises concerns about the potential accumulation of space debris.

"If even a fraction of the launches required to field this Chinese megaconstellation generate as much debris as this first launch, the result would be an untenable addition to the space debris population in LEO," Audrey Schaffer, Slingshot Aerospace Vice President of Strategy and Policy

Future Prospects

China’s ambitions for megaconstellations extend beyond Thousand Sails. The national Guowang ("national net") project, managed by the China Satellite Network Group, plans to deploy 13,000 satellites and is expected to launch its first batch soon. The growing demand for launch capacity has also spurred the development of new, reusable medium-lift launch vehicles, with the first launches anticipated in 2025.

The completion of the first commercial spaceport near Wenchang, Hainan Island, signals China's commitment to expanding its launch capabilities to support these megaconstellations.

However, the debris incident from this latest launch highlights the challenges and risks associated with such large-scale satellite deployments.